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@techreport{NBERw1610,
 title = "Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates",
 author = "Shiller, Robert J",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Working Paper",
 series = "Working Paper Series",
 number = "1610",
 year = "1985",
 month = "April",
 doi = {10.3386/w1610},
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w1610",
 abstract = {There does not appear to be a general tendency for long-term interest rates either to overreact or to underreact to short-term interest rates relative to a rational expectations model of the term structure. Rather, there appears to be some tendency for markets to set long-term interest rates in terms of a convention or rule of thumb that makes long rates behave as a distributed lag, with gradually declining coefficients, of short-term interest rates. People seem to remember the recent past but blur the mare distant. In some monetary policy regimes this convention implies overreaction, in others underreaction.},
}