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The Macroeconomics of Border Taxes

Omar Barbiero, Emmanuel Farhi, Gita Gopinath, Oleg Itskhoki


This chapter is a preliminary draft unless otherwise noted. It may not have been subjected to the formal review process of the NBER. This page will be updated as the chapter is revised.

Chapter in forthcoming NBER book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018, volume 33, Martin Eichenbaum and Jonathan A. Parker, editors
Conference held April 12-13, 2018
Forthcoming from University of Chicago Press
in NBER Book Series NBER Macroeconomics Annual

We analyze the dynamic macroeconomic effects of border adjustment taxes, both when they are a feature of corporate tax reform (C-BAT) and for the case of value added taxes (VAT). Our analysis arrives at the following main conclusions. First, C-BAT is unlikely to be neutral at the macroeconomic level, as the conditions required for neutrality are unrealistic. The basis for neutrality of VAT is even weaker. Second, in response to the introduction of an unanticipated permanent C-BAT of 20% in the U.S. the dollar appreciates strongly, by almost the size of the tax adjustment, U.S. exports and imports decline significantly, while the overall effect on output is small. Third, an equivalent change in VAT by contrast generates only a weak appreciation of the dollar, a small decline in imports and exports, but has a large negative effect on output. Lastly, border taxes increase government revenues in periods of trade deficit, however, given the net foreign asset position of the U.S., they result in a long-run loss of government revenues and an immediate net transfer to the rest of the world.

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This chapter first appeared as NBER working paper w24702, The Macroeconomics of Border Taxes, Omar Barbiero, Emmanuel Farhi, Gita Gopinath, Oleg Itskhoki
Commentary on this chapter:
  Comment, Alan J. Auerbach
  Comment, N. Gregory Mankiw
  Discussion,
 
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