NB24-09: Medium-Term Effects of COVID-19 on Disparities by Race and Income

What are the medium-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on racial and income gaps in mortality rates and life expectancy, and what has caused these changes? Previous work (e.g. Aburto et al 2022; Alsan et al 2021; Andrasfay and Goldman 2021) documents large disparate effects of the pandemic on mortality by race and income, especially in comparison to a pre-pandemic trend of shrinking racial mortality gaps. And recent estimates show that mortality rates climbed even higher in 2021 than they had reached in 2020 (Xu et al 2022). Now that the large waves of COVID-19 have passed and most of the population is vaccinated, we propose to study how disparities in mortality changed in 2021 and 2022. Our study will use the combination of IRS tax records and US Census data (accessed via the US Census Bureau), which crucially include direct measures of both race and income. We will first study the medium-term effects of COVID-19 on mortality rates and period life expectancy, especially as it differs by race and income. We will then exploit variation in these effects across areas in the US – both between and within metro areas – to understand the drivers of the medium-term patterns. Our aims are as follows:
● Estimate the trend break in racial and ethnic convergence of mortality rates in 2020, and measure whether 2021 and 2022 exhibit convergence or divergence: We will apply updated methods from Chetty et al. (2022) (RDRC NB22-06) to estimate these statistics using data at Census.
● Analyze the drivers of racial convergence: We will examine heterogeneity in convergence by geography and age to characterize where and how racial convergence in life expectancy has been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic
● Assess policies that could further racial convergence: By examining the determinants of the remaining gaps, we will explore what policies or policy areas seem most likely to close racial gaps in mortality rates and life expectancy that emerged during the pandemic and continue the pre-pandemic trend of racial convergence.
● Produce manuscript and disseminate findings: We will prepare a paper summarizing our findings and disseminate them through academic publications, conferences, and the popular press.