A Research Agenda for the Economics of Transformative AI

Erik Brynjolfsson; Anton Korinek; Ajay K. Agrawal

doi:10.3386/w34256

A Research Agenda for the Economics of Transformative AI

Erik Brynjolfsson, Anton Korinek & Ajay K. Agrawal

Working Paper 34256

DOI 10.3386/w34256

Issue Date September 2025

As we approach Transformative Artificial Intelligence (TAI), there is an urgent need to advance our understanding of how it could reshape our economic models, institutions and policies. We propose a research agenda for the economics of TAI by identifying nine Grand Challenges: economic growth, innovation, income distribution, decision-making power, geoeconomics, information flows, safety risks, human well-being, and transition dynamics. By accelerating work in these areas, researchers can develop insights and tools to help fulfill the economic potential of TAI.

We thank Basil Halperin and Philip Trammell for their excellent research assistance on this draft, Matty Smith for editorial assistance, and Guy Ben-Ishai, Diane Coyle, Sarah Friar, Christie Ko, Sam Manning, James Manyika, Albert Wenger and numerous participants in the March 2024 Asilomar Workshop on the Economics of Transformative AI for valuable discussions and suggestions. The Stanford Digital Economy Lab, CSH Vienna, and the Centre for Innovation and Entrepreneurship at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management provided funding and support. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Erik Brynjolfsson
Erik Brynjolfsson is the Director of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab which is partially funded by a variety of industry, government and nonprofit organizations. He has given over 400 talks, some of which were compensated.

Ajay K. Agrawal
Ajay Agrawal has drawn on the findings of his research for both compensated speaking engagements and consulting engagements. He has written the books Prediction Machines and Power & Prediction on the economics of AI for which he receives royalties. He is also founder of the Creative Destruction Lab, a University of Toronto-based program that helps seed stage companies. He has equity shares in a number of technology companies as part of a diverse portfolio. His disclosure statement: https://agrawal.ca/disclosure.
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Erik Brynjolfsson, Anton Korinek, and Ajay K. Agrawal, "A Research Agenda for the Economics of Transformative AI," NBER Working Paper 34256 (2025), https://doi.org/10.3386/w34256.

A Research Agenda for the Economics of Transformative AI

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