The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections
NBER Working Paper No. 19895
---- Acknowledgments ----
This paper provides a sequel to my previous NBER working paper "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over: Faltering Innovation and the Six Headwinds," WP 18315, August 2012. Part of this research has been supported by the Kauffman Foundation. Jordan Jones and R. J. Singh were the talented research assistants who created the data set and charts. Andrew Sabene and Ryan Ayres provided comments and additional graphs. Several issues about future growth in this paper are informed by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee's new book (2014) and previous public debates with each of them. Carol Corrado generously provided the data in Figure 9 that help solve a puzzle posed by Figure 8. William Nordhaus provided a correction to my summary of his estimates of the cost in lost GDP of future global warming. Ian Savage provided a comparative analysis of the office support staff of the Northwestern economics department in 1998 and 2013. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.