Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries
Job polarization refers to the shrinking share of employment in middle-skill, routine occupations experienced recently, over the last 35 years. Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions, despite recoveries in aggregate output. We show how these two phenomena are related. First, essentially all employment loss in routine occupations occurs in economic downturns. Second, jobless recoveries in the aggregate can be accounted for by jobless recoveries in the routine occupations that are disappearing.
Previously circulated as "The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries." We thank David Andolfatto, Mark Aguiar, Susanto Basu, Paul Beaudry, Larry Christiano, Matias Cortes, Paul Gaggl, Erik Hurst, Marianna Kudlyak, Ryan Michaels, Richard Rogerson, Aysegul Sahin, Robert Shimer, Chris Taber, Marcelo Veracierto, Gianluca Violante, and numerous conference and seminar participants for helpful discussions, and the Editor and anonymous referees for comments. Domenico Ferraro provided expert research assistance. Siu thanks the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada for support. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2020. "Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol 102(1), pages 129-147. citation courtesy of