Why did HIV decline in Uganda?

Marcella M. Alsan, David M. Cutler

NBER Working Paper No. 16171
Issued in July 2010, Revised in June 2012
NBER Program(s):Health Care, Health Economics

Uganda is widely viewed as a public health success for curtailing its HIV/AIDS epidemic in the early 1990s. We investigate the factors contributing to this decline. We first build a model of HIV transmission. Calibration of the model indicates that reduced pre-marital sexual activity among young women is the most important factor in the decline in HIV. We next explore what led young women to change their behavior. We estimate that approximately one-third the reduction in HIV in this cohort and almost 20 percent of the overall HIV decline was due to a gender-targeted education policy.

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Acknowledgments

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w16171

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