A Generalized Analysis of the Direct and Spillover Effects of Test-based Retention Policies

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of Florida’s test-based retention policy. Under this policy, students that cannot demonstrate adequate reading ability at the end of grade three are retained in grade three and provided with retention-year interventions designed to improve their reading skills. Applying quasi-experimental methods to secondary data from three large Florida school districts, the researchers will answer four questions: (1) what is the effect of being retained in third grade on long-run outcomes such as high school graduation and college enrollment? (2) does the retention policy have spillover effects on non-retained students promoted to fourth grade and, if so, what does this imply for estimates of retention effects that ignore these spillovers? (3) how are the effects of retention on long-run outcomes shaped by changes in remedial coursework in middle school? (4) how do the effects of retention on long-run outcomes vary by reading skills in third grade, and what are the effects among students with weak reading skills, a group that includes a disproportionate number of economically disadvantaged and historically underserved students?