100 Fuqua Drive
Fuqua School of Business
Durham, NC 27008
Institutional Affiliation: Duke University
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|March 2019||The Term Structure of Equity Risk Premia|
with Ravi Bansal, Dongho Song, Amir Yaron: w25690
We use traded equity dividend strips from U.S., Europe, and Japan from 2004-2017 to study the slope of the term structure of equity dividend risk premia. In the data, a robust finding is that the term structure of dividend risk premia (growth rates) is positively (negatively) sloped in expansions and negatively (positively) sloped in recessions. We develop a consumption-based regime switching model which matches these robust data-features and the historical probabilities of recession and expansion regimes. The unconditional population term structure of dividend-risk premia in the regime-switching model, as in standard asset pricing models (habits and long-run risks), is increasing with maturity. The regime-switching model also features a declining average term structure of dividend risk-pr...