International Finance Division
Federal Reserve Board of Governors
20th Street and Constitution Avenue N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20551
Institutional Affiliation: Federal Reserve Board
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|January 2020||Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism|
with Kyle Handley, Fariha Kamal: w26611
We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 U.S. import tariff increases on U.S. export growth through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we document the implied incidence and scope of new import tariffs. Firms that eventually faced tariff increases on their imports accounted for 84% of all exports and represented 65% of manufacturing employment. For all affected firms, the implied cost is $900 per worker in new duties. To estimate the effect on U.S. export growth, we construct product-level measures of import tariff exposure of U.S. exports from the underlying firm micro data. More exposed products experienced 2 percentage point lower growth relative to products with no exposure. The decline in exports is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on U...