Capital Markets Function
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045
Institutional Affiliation: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|June 2019||A Unified Approach to Measuring u*|
with Stefano Eusepi, Marc Giannoni, Ayşegül Şahin: w25930
This paper bridges the gap between two popular approaches to estimating the natural rate of unemployment, u*. The first approach uses detailed labor market indicators such as labor market flows, cross-sectional data on unemployment and vacancies, or various measures of demographic changes. The second approach which comprises reduced form models and DSGE models relies on aggregate price and wage Phillips curve relationships. We combine the key features of these two approaches to estimate the natural rate of unemployment in the United States using both data on labor market flows and a forward-looking Phillips curve linking inflation to current and expected deviations of unemployment from its unobserved natural rate. We estimate that the natural rate of unemployment is around 4.0% toward the...
Published: Richard K. Crump & Marc Giannoni & Stefano Eusepi & Aysşegül Şahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u*," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol 2019(1), pages 143-238.
|May 2010||Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment|
with Gopi Shah Goda, Kevin Mumford: w15984
One of the most commonly cited studies on the effect of child subsidies on fertility, Whittington, Alm and Peters (1990), claimed a large positive effect of child tax benefits on fertility using time series methods. We revisit this question in light of recent increases in child tax benefits by replicating this earlier study and extending the analysis. We do not find strong evidence to justify the model specification from the original paper. Moreover, even if the original specfication is appropriate, we show that the Whittington et al. results are not robust to more general measures of child tax benefits. While we do not find evidence that child tax benefits affect the level of fertility, we find some evidence of a short-run fertility response that occurs with a two-year lag.
Published: Richard Crump & Gopi Shah Goda & Kevin J. Mumford, 2011. "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1616-28, June. citation courtesy of
|October 2006||Moving the Goalposts: Addressing Limited Overlap in the Estimation of Average Treatment Effects by Changing the Estimand|
with V. Joseph Hotz, Guido W. Imbens, Oscar A. Mitnik: t0330
Estimation of average treatment effects under unconfoundedness or exogenous treatment assignment is often hampered by lack of overlap in the covariate distributions. This lack of overlap can lead to imprecise estimates and can make commonly used estimators sensitive to the choice of specification. In such cases researchers have often used informal methods for trimming the sample. In this paper we develop a systematic approach to addressing such lack of overlap. We characterize optimal subsamples for which the average treatment effect can be estimated most precisely, as well as optimally weighted average treatment effects. Under some conditions the optimal selection rules depend solely on the propensity score. For a wide range of distributions a good approximation to the optimal rule is pro...