NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Dávid Krisztián Nagy

CREI
Ramon Trias Fargas, 25-27
08005 Barcelona
Spain

E-Mail: dnagy@crei.cat
Institutional Affiliation: CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

NBER Working Papers and Publications

August 2018Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding
with Klaus Desmet, Robert E. Kopp, Scott A. Kulp, Michael Oppenheimer, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Benjamin H. Strauss: w24918
Sea-level rise and ensuing permanent coastal inundation will cause spatial shifts in population and economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a highly spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy that accounts for the dynamics of migration, trade, and innovation, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea-level changes under different emissions scenarios. Under an intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by an average of 0.19% in present value terms, with welfare declining by 0.24% as people move to places with less attractive amenities. By the year 2200 a projected 1.46% of world population will be displaced. Losses in many coastal localities are more than an o...
April 2015The Geography of Development: Evaluating Migration Restrictions and Coastal Flooding
with Klaus Desmet, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg: w21087
We study the relationship between geography and growth. To do so, we first develop a dynamic spatial growth theory with realistic geography. We characterize the model and its balanced growth path and propose a methodology to analyze equilibria with different levels of migration frictions. We bring the model to the data for the whole world economy at a 1°×1° geographic resolution. We then use the model to quantify the gains from relaxing migration restrictions as well as to describe the evolution of the distribution of economic activity in the different migration scenarios. Our results indicate that fully liberalizing migration would increase welfare more than three-fold and would significantly affect the evolution of particular regions in the world. We then use the model to study the effec...

Published: Klaus Desmet & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2018. "The Geography of Development," Journal of Political Economy, vol 126(3), pages 903-983.

 
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