NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Clémence Tricaud

68 Bd Edgar Quinet
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France
Paris
France

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: University of California at Los Angeles

NBER Working Papers and Publications

December 2019The Large Effects of a Small Win: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates
with Vincent Pons: w26599
Candidates’ placements in polls, past elections, or early rounds of a multi-round election can be powerful coordination devices for parties and voters. Using a regression discontinuity design in French two-round elections, we show that candidates who place first by only a small margin in the first round are more likely to stay in the race, win, and win conditionally on staying in than those who come in a very close second. The impacts are even larger for ranking second instead of third, and also present for third instead of fourth. Rankings’ effects are largest when candidates have the same political orientation (making coordination more important), but remain strong when two candidates only qualify for the second round (and coordination is not needed). They stem from allied parties agreei...
 
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