Causes and Consequences of the Export Enhancement Program for Wheat

This paper uses regression analysis to study the causes and impacts of the Export Enhancement Program for wheat. We find that the overwhelming causes of the EEP, faltering export markets and swelling government stocks are primarily attributable to the overvaluation of the dollar in the 1980s, not the increase in EC subsidies to wheat farmers in 1985. We also find that what had been a fairly robust relationship between export shares, exchange rates, and loan rates broke down after 1985, probably due to a variety of changes in farm policy. In any case, export shares did not rebound in spite of the weaker dollar and the implementation of the EEP in the post-1985 period.