Canaries in the Gold Mine: Early Productivity Gains from Artificial Intelligence Creating Organization Capital

We are grateful for discussions and helpful comments from Katharine Abraham, Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, Martin Beraja, Nicholas Bloom, Lee Branstetter, Timothy Bresnahan, Erik Brynjolfsson, David Byrne, Nicolas Crouzet, David Deming, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb, Daniel Gross, Kyle Herkenhoff, Anders Humlum, Xavier Jaravel, Benjamin Jones, Charles Jones, Sophia Kazinnik, Kai Li, Joseba Martinez, Daniel Rock, Raffaella Sadun, Lawrence Schmidt, Gregor Schubert, Bryan Seegmiller, Chad Syverson, Neil Thompson, John Van Reenen, Michal Zator, Miao Ben Zhang, and seminar participants at the Baruch AI in Finance Workshop, Drexel University, the OECD Virtual Conference on the Competition in the AI Landscape, the UBS New Frontiers in Quant Finance Conference, the University of Maryland, the University of North Carolina Alumni Conference, the University of Sydney, the University of Technology Sydney, the UBC Summer Finance Conference, and the Workshop on Emerging Research on AI, Labor, and the Future of Work at the Economic Innovation Group. We thank Yueran Ma for generously sharing the code used to match firms in Revelio to Compustat. We thank Yaru Su for excellent research assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.