Industry Distress Anomaly
We document a robust industry-level distress anomaly in which more distressed industries earn significantly lower expected equity returns. The anomaly is distinct from the firm-level distress anomaly (Campbell, Hilscher and Szilagyi, 2008). It remains significant after controlling for firm-level distress but disappears in placebo industries formed by randomly reshuffling firms across actual industries. Both theoretically and empirically, we show that competition-distress feedback amplifies the exposure of industry profit margins and equity returns to discount-rate shocks. Industries with greater idiosyncratic left-tail risk are more distressed but exhibit weaker competition-distress feedback. This effect reduces their exposure to discount-rate shocks and thus lowers their expected equity returns.
-
-
Copy CitationHui Chen, Winston Wei Dou, Hongye Guo, and Yan Ji, "Industry Distress Anomaly," NBER Working Paper 35513 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w35513.Download Citation
-