Information and Macroeconomic Expectations: Global Evidence

We thank Tommaso Manfe, Gokul Raj Boobathy, and Carlos Chavez for excellent research assistance. For very helpful comments and discussions, we thank Winnie Coleman, Fiorella de Fiore, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and conference and seminar participants in the 2025 American Economic Association Annual Meeting, the G53 Financial Literacy seminar, the Virtual Asian Seminar on Macroeconomic Expectations, the Inter-American Development Bank, Texas A&M, Verein fuer Socialpolitik, European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Inflation Conference, BIS Asian Expectation Network, Econometric Society World Congress, Society of Economic Dynamics Conference, CESifo Area Conference on Macro with Micro Data 2026, KOF Institut ETH Zurich, Barcelona Summer Forum, Expectations in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, SAFE Household Finance Conference, 2nd Kiel-CEPR Conference on Monetary Policy, and the University of Macau. We thank the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation for the generous funding under grant #G-2022-19504, the National Science Foundation under grant #2149129, and Morning Consult for data collection. Weber also gratefully acknowledges the funding by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and the German Federal Ministry of Research, Technology and Space. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.