Air Pollution and Internal Migration in the United States
We estimate the effect of PM₂.₅ pollution on migration between commuting zones in the United States from 2005-2019. To account for the correlation between origin and destination commuting zones’ pollution levels and potential endogeneity, we estimate a dyadic migration model and isolate permanent changes in origin and destination pollution emanating from distant coal-fired power plants. Annual panel and long-difference estimates indicate that air pollution plays a key role in relocation decisions. For the typical commuting zone, an isolated average 2005-2019 PM₂.₅ concentration decrease of 3.85 μg/m³ would avert out-migration and increase in-migration, totaling 2 percent of the population annually.
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Copy CitationMichael Keller, Christopher R. Knittel, Benjamin Krebs, and Simon Luechinger, "Air Pollution and Internal Migration in the United States," NBER Working Paper 35317 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w35317.Download Citation
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