Do Markets Believe in Transformative AI?
We examine US bond yields around 30 major AI model release dates from four frontier labs between November 2022 and December 2025. Long-term Treasury and TIPS yields fall around these releases and remain lower for weeks, with the declines concentrated around releases that a crowdsourced forecast interprets as good news about the rate of AI progress. These changes are statistically significant according to a variety of small-sample valid statistical tests, and suggest that investors may take seriously the possibility of transformative impacts from AI.
-
-
Copy CitationIsaiah Andrews and Maryam Farboodi, "Do Markets Believe in Transformative AI?," NBER Working Paper 34243 (2025), https://doi.org/10.3386/w34243.Download Citation
-
Related
Topics
More from the NBER
In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Health, and the Bulletin on Entrepreneurship — as well as online conference reports, video lectures, and interviews.
