Misinformation, Consumer Risk Perceptions, and Markets: The Impact of an Information Shock on Vaping and Smoking Cessation

Smoking is the leading preventable cause of death in the U.S. Because e-cigarettes do not involve the combustion of tobacco, vaping offers the potential to prevent most of the health consequences of smoking. We study the impact of an information shock created by an outbreak of lung injuries apparently related to e-cigarettes. We use data from multiple sources: surveys of risk perceptions conducted before, during, and after the outbreak; an in-depth survey we conducted on risk perceptions and vaping and smoking behavior; and national aggregate time-series sales data. We find that after the outbreak, consumer perceptions of the riskiness of e-cigarettes sharply increased, so that in contrast to almost all experts, the majority of consumers perceive e-cigarettes to be relatively and absolutely riskier than cigarettes. From our estimated e-cigarette demand models, we conclude that the information shock reduced e-cigarette demand by about 30 percent. We also estimate that the information shock decreased the use of e-cigarettes for smoking cessation, again by about 30 percent. Over time, the reduced smoking cessation due to the information shock will in turn increase smoking-related illness and death.