NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction

Ajay Agrawal, Joshua S. Gans, Avi Goldfarb

NBER Working Paper No. 25619
Issued in February 2019

---- Acknowledgments ----

Ajay Agrawal is the Geoffrey Taber Chair in Entrepreneurship and Innovation and Professor of Strategic Management, Joshua S. Gans is the Jeffrey Skoll Chair in Technical Innovation and Entrepreneurship and Professor of Strategic Management, and Avi Goldfarb is the Rotman Chair in Artificial Intelligence and Healthcare and Professor of Marketing, all at the Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada, and the National Bureau of Economic Research. Their email addresses are ajay@agrawal.ca, joshua.gans@utoronto.ca, and agoldfarb@rotman.utoronto.ca. We thank Tim Taylor for comprehensive comments on an earlier version of this paper. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

---- Disclosure of Financial Relationships for Joshua S. Gans ----

I work with AI companies as part of the Creative Destruction Lab.

---- Disclosure of Financial Relationships for Avi Goldfarb ----

I have no direct financial interest. I do have technology stocks as part of a broad investment portfolio. In addition, I receive income from a book and from public talks related to my research on the economics of artificial intelligence. I am also the Chief Data Scientist of the Creative Destruction Lab that engages with startups including those in artificial intelligence. He also is a small seed investor in several AI startups and has investments in large technology companies as part of a broad portfolio.

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