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Does It Matter If Statistical Agencies Frame the Month's CPI Reporton a 1-Month or 12-month Basis?

Jeffrey A. Frankel, Ayako Saiki

NBER Working Paper No. 23754
Issued in August 2017
NBER Program(s):Asset Pricing, Economic Fluctuations and Growth, International Finance and Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics

When the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases new numbers, in theory it should make no difference whether the press release emphasizes the most recent 1-month number, which is what it always does, or the 12-month number, as many other countries’ statistical agencies do. This paper offers the hypothesis that it does matter: Markets react to CPI inflation news via whichever framing the agency has adopted.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w23754

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