The Effect of Smoking on Obesity: Evidence from a Randomized Trial

Charles Courtemanche, Rusty Tchernis, Benjamin Ukert

NBER Working Paper No. 21937
Issued in January 2016, Revised in June 2016
NBER Program(s):Health Care, Health Economics

This paper aims to identify the causal effect of smoking on body mass index (BMI) using data from the Lung Health Study, a randomized trial of smoking cessation treatments. Since nicotine is a metabolic stimulant and appetite suppressant, quitting or reducing smoking could lead to weight gain. Using randomized treatment assignment to instrument for smoking, we estimate that quitting smoking leads to an average long- run weight gain of 1.8-1.9 BMI units, or 11-12 pounds at the average height. These results imply that the drop in smoking in recent decades explains 14% of the concurrent rise in obesity. Semi-parametric models provide evidence of a diminishing marginal effect of smoking on BMI, while subsample regressions show that the impact is largest for younger individuals, females, those with no college degree, and those in the lowest quartile of baseline BMI.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w21937

Published: Charles Courtemanche & Rusty Tchernis & Benjamin Ukert, 2018. "The effect of smoking on obesity: Evidence from a randomized trial," Journal of Health Economics, vol 57, pages 31-44. citation courtesy of

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