NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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The Tail that Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation

Julian Kozlowski, Laura Veldkamp, Venky Venkateswaran

NBER Working Paper No. 21719
Issued in November 2015, Revised in February 2019

---- Acknowledgments ----

We thank our four anonymous referees and our Editor, Harald Uhlig, as well as Mark Gertler, Mike Golosov, Mike Chernov, Francois Gourio, Christian Hellwig and participants at the Paris Conference on Economic Uncertainty, IMF Secular Stagnation conference, Einaudi, SED and NBER summer institute for helpful comments and Philippe Andrade, Jennifer La'O, Franck Portier and Robert Ulbricht for their insightful discussions. We thank Adrien Avernas for providing us the data on credit spreads of bank holding companies. Veldkamp and Venkateswaran gratefully acknowledge financial support from the NYU Stern Center for Global Economy and Business. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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