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@techreport{NBERw14820,
 title = "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe",
 author = "Bloom, David E and Canning, David and Fink, Günther and Finlay, Jocelyn E",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Working Paper",
 series = "Working Paper Series",
 number = "14820",
 year = "2009",
 month = "March",
 doi = {10.3386/w14820},
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w14820",
 abstract = {We analyze the effect of fertility on income per capita with a particular focus on the experience of Europe. For European countries with below-replacement fertility, the cost of continued low fertility will only be observed in the long run. We show that in the short run, a fall in the fertility rate will lower the youth dependency ratio and increase the working-age share, thus raising income per capita. In the long run, however, the burden of old-age dependency dominates the youth dependency decline, and continued low fertility will lead to small working-age shares in the absence of large migration inflows. We show that the currently very high working-age shares generated by the recent declines in fertility and migration inflows are not sustainable, and that significant drops in the relative size of the working-age population should be expected. Without substantial adjustments in labor force participation or migration policies, the potential negative repercussions on the European economy are large.},
}