Demographic Forces and US Labor Market Dynamics

The growth rate of the working-age population in the US has been trending downward. This slowdown reflects several forces including, but not limited to, retirement of the baby boom generation, shifts in immigration flows, declining labor force participation among some groups, and persistently low birth rates. These demographic changes have important consequences for wage and employment dynamics, mobility, and career evolution. 

To explore these issues, on March 5, 2027, the NBER, with the generous support of the Smith Richardson Foundation, will host a conference in San Francisco. The program will be organized by NBER researchers Lisa B. Kahn (University of Rochester) and Ayşegül Şahin (Princeton University). It will highlight recent research on the relationship between demographic shifts and wage and labor market dynamics. Examples of questions that might be addressed include, but are not limited to: 

• How are demographic trends shaping aggregate wage growth and its distribution across workers?
• What is the relationship between labor force trends and employment dynamics, including job creation, turnover, and unemployment?
• How do demographic changes affect career trajectories, job ladders, and mobility across cohorts?
• To what extent do fertility trends and household formation decisions influence labor supply, particularly among women?
• How have demographic forces interacted with the disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic?
• What role has the rise of remote work played in mediating the effects of demographic change on the labor market?
• What are the implications of changing workforce composition for firms? 

            To be considered for inclusion on the program, papers must be uploaded by 11:59pm ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2026 via the following link:

Submit Papers

Please feel free to share this call for papers widely with any researchers who might be working on projects that are suitable for presentation. 

Please do not submit papers that have been accepted for publication and will be published by March 2027, and be aware that NBER papers may not make policy recommendations or offer normative judgements on policy. Authors chosen to present papers will be notified in December 2026. The NBER will cover hotel and economy-class conference travel for one author per paper. All other co-authors will be invited to attend at their own expense. Questions about this conference may be addressed to confer@nber.org.