NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Roy Mill

At-Bay Inc.
Mountain View

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

February 2018Linking Individuals Across Historical Sources: a Fully Automated Approach
with Ran Abramitzky, Santiago PĂ©rez: w24324
Linking individuals across historical datasets relies on information such as name and age that is both non-unique and prone to enumeration and transcription errors. These errors make it impossible to find the correct match with certainty. In the first part of the paper, we suggest a fully automated probabilistic method for linking historical datasets that enables researchers to create samples at the frontier of minimizing type I (false positives) and type II (false negatives) errors. The first step guides researchers in the choice of which variables to use for linking. The second step uses the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, a standard tool in statistics, to compute the probability that each two records correspond to the same individual. The third step suggests how to use these es...
 
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