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Washington, DC 20433
Institutional Affiliation: World Bank
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|February 2020||Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers|
with M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok, Eswar S. Prasad: w26798
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers from financial variables. We consider cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, and investment) and financial variables (equity and house prices, and interest rates). We find that the global macro factor plays a major role in explaining G-7 business cycles, but there are also spillovers from equity and house price shocks onto macroeconomic aggregates. These spillovers operate mainly through the global macro factor rather than the country-specific macro factors (i.e., these spillovers af...