28 Hillhouse Ave.
New Haven, CT 06520
Institutional Affiliation: Yale University
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|March 2018||The Dynamic Effects of Computerized VAT Invoices on Chinese Manufacturing Firms|
with Haichao Fan, Yu Liu, Nancy Qian: w24414
This paper uses a balanced panel of large manufacturing firms to provide novel evidence on the dynamic effects of computerizing VAT invoices on tax revenues and firm behavior in China, 1998-2007. We find that computerization explains 14.38% of cumulative VAT revenues and increases the effective average tax rate by approximately 4.7-14% in the seven subsequent years. The evidence suggests that the effects of computerization change over time: tax revenue gains are likely to be smaller in the long run. Meanwhile, firms reduce output and input, and increase productivity monotonically over time.
|January 2018||Distrust and Political Turnover|
with Nathan Nunn, Nancy Qian: w24187
We present findings that document one way in which a society's culture can affect political outcomes. Examining an annual panel of democratic countries over six decades, we show that severe economic downturns are more likely to cause political turnover in countries that have lower levels of generalized trust. The relationship is only found among democracies and for regular leader turnover, which suggests that the underlying mechanism works through leader accountability and the electoral process. Moreover, we find that the effects of trust on turnover are greatest during years with regularly-scheduled elections, and within democracies with a parliamentary system, a fully free media, and greater stability. The estimates suggest that generalized trust affects political institutions by influen...