NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Danying Xiao

Laboratory for Financial Engineering
100 Main Street
Cambridge, MA 02142

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Massachusetts Institute of Technology

NBER Working Papers and Publications

May 2020Bayesian Adaptive Clinical Trials for Anti‐Infective Therapeutics during Epidemic Outbreaks
with Shomesh Chaudhuri, Andrew W. Lo, Qingyang Xu: w27175
In the midst of epidemics such as COVID-19, therapeutic candidates are unlikely to be able to complete the usual multiyear clinical trial and regulatory approval process within the course of an outbreak. We apply a Bayesian adaptive patient-centered model—which minimizes the expected harm of false positives and false negatives—to optimize the clinical trial development path during such outbreaks. When the epidemic is more infectious and fatal, the Bayesian-optimal sample size in the clinical trial is lower and the optimal statistical significance level is higher. For COVID-19 (assuming a static R0 – 2 and initial infection percentage of 0.1%), the optimal significance level is 7.1% for a clinical trial of a nonvaccine anti-infective therapeutic and 13.6% for that of a vac...
 
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