NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Christoph Rothe

Department of Economics
Columbia University

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Institutional Affiliation: Columbia University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

December 2016Bounds on Treatment Effects in Regression Discontinuity Designs with a Manipulated Running Variable
with Fran├žois Gerard, Miikka Rokkanen: w22892
The key assumption in regression discontinuity analysis is that the distribution of potential outcomes varies smoothly with the running variable around the cutoff. In many empirical contexts, however, this assumption is not credible; and the running variable is said to be manipulated in this case. In this paper, we show that while causal effects are not point identified under manipulation, they remain partially identified under a general model that covers a wide range of empirical patterns. We derive sharp bounds on causal parameters for both sharp and fuzzy designs under our general model, and show how additional structure can be used to further narrow the bounds. We use our methods to study the disincentive effect of unemployment insurance on (formal) reemployment in Brazil, and show tha...
 
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