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NBER Working Papers and Publications
|December 2010||The Impact of Employment Protection on Workers Disabled by Workplace Injuries|
with Seth A. Seabury
in Regulation vs. Litigation: Perspectives from Economics and Law, Daniel P. Kessler, editor
|August 2009||Understanding the Economic Consequences of Shifting Trends in Population Health|
with Pierre-Carl Michaud, Dana Goldman, Darius Lakdawalla, Yuhui Zheng: w15231
The public economic burden of shifting trends in population health remains uncertain. Sustained increases in obesity, diabetes, and other diseases could reduce life expectancy - with a concomitant decrease in the public-sector's annuity burden - but these savings may be offset by worsening functional status, which increases health care spending, reduces labor supply, and increases public assistance. Using a microsimulation approach, we quantify the competing public-finance consequences of shifting trends in population health for medical care costs, labor supply, earnings, wealth, tax revenues, and government expenditures (including Social Security and income assistance). Together, the reduction in smoking and the rise in obesity have increased net public-sector liabilities by $430bn, or ap...
Published: Goldman, D., Michaud, P., Lakdawalla, D., Zheng, Y., Gailey, A., & Vaynman, I., The Fiscal Consequences of Trends in Population Health; National Tax Journal 63(2), 307-330; 2010.
|International Differences in Longevity and Health and their Economic Consequences|
with Pierre-Carl Michaud, Dana Goldman, Darius Lakdawalla, Yuhui Zheng: w15235
In 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than their European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy at that age has diverged substantially compared to Europe. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily the symptom of real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their European peers. In particular, we use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Europe. We find that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Europeans could save u...
Published: Michaud, P.-C., D. Goldman, D. Lakdawalla, A. Gailey and Y. Zheng (2011): "Differences in Health between Americans and Western Europeans: Effects on Longevity and Public Finance", Social Science and Medicine 73:2, pp. 254-263.