TY - JOUR AU - Clotfelter, Charles T AU - Cook, Philip J TI - The "Gambler's Fallacy" in Lottery Play JF - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series VL - No. 3769 PY - 1991 Y2 - July 1991 DO - 10.3386/w3769 UR - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3769 L1 - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3769.pdf N1 - Author contact info: Charles T. Clotfelter Sanford School of Public Policy Sanford 236 201 Science Drive Box 90245 Duke University Durham, NC 27708 Tel: 919/613-7361 E-Mail: charles.clotfelter@duke.edu Philip J. Cook Sanford School of Public Policy Duke University 215 Sanford Building Durham, NC 27708-0245 Tel: 919 613 7360 Fax: 919/681-8288 E-Mail: pcook@duke.edu AB - The -gambler's fallacy- is the belief that the probability of an event is lowered when that event has recently occurred, even though the probability of the event is objectively known to be independent from one trial to the next. This paper provides evidence on the time pattern of lottery participation to see whether actual behavior is consistent with this fallacy. Using data from the Maryland daily numbers game, we find a clear and consistent tendency for the amount of money bet on a particular number to fall sharply immediately after it is drawn, and then gradually to recover to its former level over the course of several months. This pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that lottery players are in fact subject to the gambler?s fallacy. ER -