TY  - JOUR
AU  - Clotfelter, Charles T
AU  - Cook, Philip J
TI  - The "Gambler's Fallacy" in Lottery Play
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 3769
PY  - 1991
Y2  - July 1991
DO  - 10.3386/w3769
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3769
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3769.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Charles T. Clotfelter
Sanford School of Public Policy
Sanford 236
201 Science Drive
Box 90245 Duke University
Durham, NC  27708
Tel: 919/613-7361
E-Mail: charles.clotfelter@duke.edu

Philip J. Cook
Sanford School of Public Policy
Duke University
215 Sanford Building
Durham, NC 27708-0245
Tel: 919 613 7360
Fax:  919/681-8288
E-Mail: pcook@duke.edu
AB  - The -gambler's fallacy- is the belief that the probability of an event is lowered when that event has recently occurred, even though the probability of the event is objectively known to be independent from one trial to the next. This paper provides evidence on the time pattern of lottery participation to see whether actual behavior is consistent with this fallacy. Using data from the Maryland daily numbers game, we find a clear and consistent tendency for the amount of money bet on a particular number to fall sharply immediately after it is drawn, and then gradually to recover to its former level over the course of several months. This pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that lottery players are in fact subject to the gambler?s fallacy.
ER  -