Innovation, Business Cycles, and the Climate Transition
We study how business cycle fluctuations shape the pace and direction of innovation. Non-green innovation is procyclical, while green innovation is countercyclical, both over the cycle and in response to economic shocks. We explain this divergence in a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous green and non-green innovation. Green patents derive more value from distant profits, making green innovation less sensitive to short-run fluctuations. Endogenous innovation costs reinforce this mechanism, making green and non-green innovation effective substitutes. Evidence from market-implied patent valuations and scientist earnings supports the mechanism. The model implies larger and greener effects of innovation subsidies during downturns.
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Copy CitationDiego R. Känzig, Maximilian Konradt, Lixing Wang, and Donghai Zhang, "Innovation, Business Cycles, and the Climate Transition," NBER Working Paper 35795 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w35795.Download Citation