A Sin Ban, Not a Sin Tax? Consumption and Incidence of SNAP Soda Restrictions

We study the first statewide SNAP restrictions on sweetened beverages and candy. Restricted spending falls 11 percent; calories and sugar fall 5–8 percent. Substitution is asymmetric: eligible fruit drinks partly offset soda declines, while candy restrictions reduce purchases of eligible snacks. Retailers barely change shelf prices. Losing SNAP’s sales-tax exemption raises tax-inclusive prices only 1.9 percent. Spending declines are larger at retailers with greater SNAP use and remain large online, where checkout stigma is less salient. Nationwide adoption would impose 13 percent of the out-of-pocket burden of an equivalent excise tax, while welfare gains reach roughly $1.1 billion annually.