The Risk-free Rate and the Risk-adjusted Growth Rate
Working Paper 35260
DOI 10.3386/w35260
Issue Date
Several important questions — such as the possibility of debt-rollover without primary surpluses — turn on whether the present value of the aggregate endowment is finite, i.e., whether the economic growth rate under the “risk-neutral” measure, lies below the risk-free rate. It is tempting to argue that the endowment must be finitely valued, since there exist finitely-valued, non-depreciating assets whose cash flows are cointegrated with aggregate output. This paper shows why this argument is incorrect. A remarkable historical episode in which French government bonds were indexed to aggregate growth allows direct measurement of the risk-adjusted growth rate, which is found to exceed the risk-free rate.
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Copy CitationStavros Panageas, "The Risk-free Rate and the Risk-adjusted Growth Rate," NBER Working Paper 35260 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w35260.Download Citation