Declining Occupations and Career Outcomes in Norway

Occupational change is a central feature of modern labor markets. This paper examines the career consequences in Norway of being initially employed in an occupation that subsequently declines during 2007–2024. Workers initially employed in occupations that later decline by at least 25% demonstrate 0.4 lower future years of work, although this employment difference is mostly explained by other individual traits. These workers, conditional on controls, experience a 4.7% reduction in future cumulative earnings relative to starting earnings, akin to losing one year’s worth of earnings over 2007–2024.