An Import(ant) Price of Brexit Uncertainty
We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that an increase in the probability of Brexit increases U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of existing products and by reducing product variety from the E.U. We find evidence that the risk of higher import protection from the 2016 referendum increased current import price indices by more than 10%. This amounted to a 2 log point increase in manufactured goods prices and a 0.6 log point decrease in consumers’ real income.
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Copy CitationAlejandro G. Graziano, Kyle Handley, and Nuno Limão, "An Import(ant) Price of Brexit Uncertainty," NBER Working Paper 31600 (2023), https://doi.org/10.3386/w31600.Download Citation
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Published Versions
Graziano, Alejandro G. & Handley, Kyle & Limão, Nuno, 2024. "An import(ant) price of Brexit uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104012. citation courtesy of 
Alejandro G. Graziano & Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2024. "An import(ant) price of Brexit uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, vol 152.
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