The Costs of Job Displacement over the Business Cycle and Its Sources: Evidence from Germany
We document the sources behind the costs of job loss over the business cycle using administrative data from Germany. Losses in annual earnings after displacement are large, persistent, and highly cyclical, nearly doubling in size during downturns. A large part of the long-term earnings losses and their cyclicality is driven by declines in wages. Key to these long-lasting wage declines and their cyclicality are changes in employer characteristics, as displaced workers switch to lower-paying firms. Changes in characteristics of workers or displacing firms explain little of the cyclicality, though non-employment durations correlated with losses in employer effects play a role.
Johannes F. Schmieder & Till von Wachter & Jörg Heining, 2023. "The Costs of Job Displacement over the Business Cycle and Its Sources: Evidence from Germany," American Economic Review, vol 113(5), pages 1208-1254. citation courtesy of