Weather, Climate, and Migration in the United States
Do people move as a result of temperature shocks? Documenting weather as a push factor for migration is crucial for informing policy related to climate change and adaptation. This paper studies the impacts of high-temperature days on out-migration from counties in the US. We find that outmigration responds to long-term variation in temperatures, but not to the short-term temperature variations that are commonly leveraged in the literature. We provide evidence consistent with the idea that the effect of long-term variation in temperature is driven by changes in expectations regarding future conditions, and specifically climate change.
Much thanks to Teevrat Garg and seminar participants at various conferences and seminars for helpful feedback. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.