Bottom-up Markup Fluctuations
Working Paper 27958
DOI 10.3386/w27958
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We study markup cyclicality in a granular macroeconomic model with oligopolistic competition. We characterize the comovement of firm, sectoral, and economy-wide markups with sectoral and aggregate output following firm-level shocks. We then quantify the model’s ability to reproduce salient features of the cyclical properties of measured markups in French administrative firm-level data, from the bottom(firm) level to the aggregate level. Our model helps rationalize various, seemingly conflicting, measures of markup cyclicality in the French data.