The Lure of Incredible Certitude
Forthright characterization of scientific uncertainty is important in principle and serves important practical purposes. Nevertheless, economists and other researchers commonly report findings with incredible certitude, reporting point predictions and estimates. To motivate expression of incredible certitude, economists often suggest that researchers respond to incentives that make the practice tempting. This temptation is the "lure" of incredible certitude. I flesh out and appraise some of the rationales that observers may have in mind when they state that incredible certitude responds to incentives. I conclude that scientific expression of incredible certitude at most has appeal in certain limited contexts. It should not be a general practice.
The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Charles F. Manski, 2020. "The lure of incredible certitude," Economics and Philosophy, vol 36(2), pages 216-245. citation courtesy of