What Motivates Effort? Evidence and Expert Forecasts
---- Acknowledgments ----
We thank Ned Augenblick, Dan Benjamin, Patrick Dejarnette, Jon de Quidt, David Laibson, Benjamin Lockwood, Barbara Mellers, Don Moore, Sendhil Mullainathan, Uri Simonsohn, Erik Snowberg, Philipp Strack, Justin Sydnor, Dmitry Taubinsky, Richard Thaler, Kevin Volpp, and the audiences at Bonn University, the London School of Economics, the Max Planck Institute in Bonn, UC Berkeley, the University of Philadelphia (Wharton), the 2016 JDM Preconference, and the Munich Conference on Behavioral Economics for useful comments. We also thank Thomas Graeber, Johannes Hermle, Jana Hofmeier, Lukas Kiessling, Tobias Raabe, Michael Sheldon, Patricia Sun, and Brian Wheaton for excellent research assistance. We are also very thankful to all the experts who took the time to contribute their forecasts. We are very grateful for support from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (award FP061020). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.