NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Is the FDA Too Conservative or Too Aggressive?: A Bayesian Decision Analysis of Clinical Trial Design

Vahid Montazerhodjat, Andrew W. Lo

NBER Working Paper No. 21499
Issued in August 2015

---- Acknowledgments ----

We thank Ernie Berndt, Don Berry, Bruce Chabner, Jayna Cummings, Mark Davis, Hans-Georg Eichler, Williams Ettouati, Gigi Hirsch, Tomas Philipson, and Nora Yang for helpful comments and discussion. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors only and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of any other organizations, any of their affiliates or employees, any of the individuals acknowledged above, or the National Bureau of Economic Research. Research support from the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering is gratefully acknowledged.

---- Disclosure of Financial Relationships for Andrew W. Lo ----

Research support from the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering and its sponsors is gratefully acknowledged. Sponsors include: The Clearing House, Natixis Global Asset Management, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.

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