TY - JOUR AU - Bloom, David E AU - Cafiero, Elizabeth T AU - McGovern, Mark E AU - Prettner, Klaus AU - Stanciole, Anderson AU - Weiss, Jonathan AU - Bakkila, Samuel AU - Rosenberg, Larry TI - The Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons JF - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series VL - No. 19335 PY - 2013 Y2 - August 2013 DO - 10.3386/w19335 UR - http://www.nber.org/papers/w19335 L1 - http://www.nber.org/papers/w19335.pdf N1 - Author contact info: David E. Bloom Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Department of Global Health and Population 665 Huntington Ave. Building 1, Suite 1202 Boston, MA 02115 Tel: 617/432-0866 Fax: 617/432-6733 E-Mail: dbloom@hsph.harvard.edu Elizabeth T. Cafiero Harvard School of Public Health Department of Global Health and Population 665 Huntington Avenue Building 1, Suite 1202 Boston, MA 02115 E-Mail: ecafiero@hsph.harvard.edu Mark McGovern Queen's University Belfast Queen's Management School Riddel Hall 185 Stranmillis Road BT95EE, Belfast United Kingdom E-Mail: m.mcgovern@qub.ac.uk Klaus Prettner Department of Economics University of Göttingen Room 2.138 Platz der Goettinger Sieben 3 D-37073 Goettingen Germany E-Mail: Klaus.prettner@wiwi.uni-goettingen.de Anderson Stanciole The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 500 5th Ave N Seattle, WA 98109 E-Mail: Anderson.Stanciole@gatesfoundation.org Jonathan Weiss London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT United Kingdom E-Mail: jonathan.weiss@lshtm.ac.uk Samuel Bakkila Department of Global Health and Population Harvard School of Public Health 665 Huntington Avenue Building I 12th Floor, Suite 1202 Boston, Massachusetts 02115 E-Mail: sbakkila@gmail.com Larry Rosenberg Department of Global Health and Population Harvard School of Public Health 665 Huntington Avenue Building I 12th Floor, Suite 1202 Boston, Massachusetts 02115 E-Mail: larry_rosenberg@harvard.edu AB - This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012-2030. Our estimates are derived using WHO's EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 27.8 trillion for China and USD 6.2 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domains are cardiovascular disease and mental health, followed by respiratory disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China's higher income and older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO's Best Buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial. ER -