TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bloom, David E
AU  - Cafiero, Elizabeth T
AU  - McGovern, Mark E
AU  - Prettner, Klaus
AU  - Stanciole, Anderson
AU  - Weiss, Jonathan
AU  - Bakkila, Samuel
AU  - Rosenberg, Larry
TI  - The Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 19335
PY  - 2013
Y2  - August 2013
DO  - 10.3386/w19335
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w19335
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w19335.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
David E. Bloom
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Department of Global Health and Population
665 Huntington Ave.
Building 1, Suite 1202
Boston, MA 02115
Tel: 617/432-0866
Fax: 617/432-6733
E-Mail: dbloom@hsph.harvard.edu

Elizabeth T. Cafiero
Harvard School of Public Health
Department of Global Health and Population
665 Huntington Avenue
Building 1, Suite 1202
Boston, MA 02115
E-Mail: ecafiero@hsph.harvard.edu

Mark McGovern
Queen's University Belfast   
Queen's Management School
Riddel Hall
185 Stranmillis Road
BT95EE, Belfast
United Kingdom
E-Mail: m.mcgovern@qub.ac.uk

Klaus Prettner
Department of Economics
University of Göttingen
Room 2.138 Platz der Goettinger 
Sieben 3 D-37073
Goettingen Germany
E-Mail: Klaus.prettner@wiwi.uni-goettingen.de

Anderson Stanciole
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
500 5th Ave N
Seattle, WA 98109 
E-Mail: Anderson.Stanciole@gatesfoundation.org

Jonathan Weiss
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Keppel Street,  London WC1E 7HT
United Kingdom
E-Mail: jonathan.weiss@lshtm.ac.uk

Samuel Bakkila
Department of Global Health and Population
Harvard School of Public Health
665 Huntington Avenue
Building I 12th Floor, Suite 1202
Boston, Massachusetts 02115
E-Mail: sbakkila@gmail.com

Larry Rosenberg
Department of Global Health and Population
Harvard School of Public Health
665 Huntington Avenue
Building I 12th Floor, Suite 1202
Boston, Massachusetts 02115
E-Mail: larry_rosenberg@harvard.edu
AB  - This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012-2030. Our estimates are derived using WHO's EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 27.8 trillion for China and USD 6.2 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domains are cardiovascular disease and mental health, followed by respiratory disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China's higher income and older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO's Best Buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.
ER  -