Financial Conditions Targeting
Working Paper 33206
DOI 10.3386/w33206
Issue Date
Revision Date
Non-fundamental inflows into the stock market loosen financial conditions and raise output, while the policy rate responds gradually. Such financial noise explains up to 20% of the variance of financial conditions and output. These facts motivate a macroeconomic model with noise traders, risk-averse arbitrageurs, and gradual interest rate adjustment. In this model, Financial Conditions Index (FCI) targeting can improve macroeconomic stabilization: the central bank announces its expected FCI as a soft near-term target and adjusts the policy rate to keep conditions near it. This commitment reduces FCI volatility, thereby “recruiting” arbitrageurs to insulate the FCI and aggregate demand from noise.
-
-
Copy CitationRicardo J. Caballero, Tomás E. Caravello, and Alp Simsek, "Financial Conditions Targeting," NBER Working Paper 33206 (2024), https://doi.org/10.3386/w33206.Download Citation
-
-