The Rate of Return to R&D Investments

Washington, DC — October 2, 2026

Investments in R&D are widely regarded as key drivers of economic growth, but the rate of return on these investments is difficult to estimate. Research inspired by the pioneering work of Zvi Griliches has delivered estimates of this return, while also recognizing that it may vary between the public and private sectors and across different project types. To advance the study of the rate of return to R&D, the NBER, with the support of Coefficient Giving and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, will convene a meeting in Washington, DC on Friday, October 2, 2026. This meeting will be organized by NBER researchers Craig Garthwaite (Northwestern University) and Tim Simcoe (Boston University). 

The meeting will showcase several new studies that inform the rate of return to R&D and also inaugurate a “Pop Up Journal” devoted to this question. The journal will host new research and other content related to measuring the rate of return on R&D. 
 
The organizers will consider papers on a range of topics including but not limited to:

  • Differences in the rate of return between privately versus publicly funded R&D.
  • Differences in the rate of return to basic and applied research outlays relative to spending on experimental development.
  • Differences between the private and social rate of return to R&D.
  • Differences across government agencies in the rate of return to publicly funded R&D.
  • Methods for estimating non-pecuniary benefits of innovation.
  • Measurement of lags in innovation diffusion, commercialization, and obsolescence.
  • Estimates of knowledge spill overs and their relationship to markets for technology.
  • Interactions among innovation policy instruments.

To be considered for inclusion on the program, please upload papers or extended abstracts by 11:59pm (EDT) on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.

The NBER especially welcomes submissions by scholars who are early in their careers and who are not NBER affiliates. Please pass this call for papers on to colleagues who might be interested. All co-authors of papers included on the program will be invited to the conference.

Please do not submit papers that have been accepted for publication and that will be published by October 2026. Authors chosen to present papers will be notified in early July 2026.

Questions about the submission process or the conference may be addressed to confer@nber.org.