Macroeconomic Effects of Population Aging

Virtual Meeting — September 18, 2026

Declining fertility and the resulting aging of a nation’s population can affect a number of macroeconomic outcomes. By slowing labor force growth, it can reduce GDP, increase wages, reduce firm entry, and lower innovative activity. By increasing the demand for assets, it can reduce interest rates and raise capital intensity and labor productivity. Population aging can also strain public finances by increasing per capita government expenditure and reducing tax receipts, leading to higher levels of debt in the short run and requiring a fiscal adjustment in the long run. In these and other ways, population aging can affect economic wellbeing and on the distribution of income. The net impact will differ from country to country, depending on demographics, institutions, and policies. 

To explore these and other related issues, on Friday, September 18, 2026, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will host a virtual research conference, supported by the National Institute of Aging and jointly organized by the Center on the Economics of Demography of Aging at the University of California, Berkeley, and Center for Aging and Health Research at the NBER. The program will be organized by Adrien Auclert (Stanford University and NBER), William Dow (University of California, Berkeley) and Ronald Lee (University of California, Berkeley and NBER). It will highlight current research on population aging and seek to identify important prospective research issues. 

Topics that would be suitable for research presentations at the conference include, but are not limited to:

  • The relationship between demographic change and GDP growth, and the channels that account for it.
  • The impact of population aging on the size, structure, and efficiency cost of public and private intergenerational transfer systems, as well as on intergenerational conflict.
  • Potential policy responses to population aging including pension reforms, changes in the retirement age, and the organization of the economic life cycle, including analysis of the political economy of pension reforms.
  • The geographic distribution of population aging, international flows of capital and labor, and other effects on the international economy.
  • The impact of population declines on local housing markets and the spatial distribution of economic activity.
  • Keynesian concerns of slowing growth in consumption demand, falling rates of return to investment, and possible secular stagnation.
  • The effect of population aging on firm entry, innovation, growth, and technology adoption.
  • The potential for substituting physical capital and human capital for labor in production and elder care
  • The effects of population aging on relative prices of various goods and services, interest rates, and asset prices.

To be considered for inclusion on the program, papers must be uploaded by 11:59pm ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, via the following link:

Submit Papers

Submissions are encouraged by researchers with and without NBER affiliations, from those in academia, government, central banks, or other sectors, and from early career scholars. Please feel free to share this call for papers widely with any researchers who might be working on projects that are suitable for presentation. 

 Please do not submit papers that have been accepted for publication and will be published by September 2026, and be aware that papers presented at NBER conferences may not make policy recommendations or offer normative judgements on policy. Authors chosen to present papers will be notified in mid-August. Questions about this conference may be addressed to confer@nber.org.