NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting

Victor Zarnowitz

Published in January 1992 by University of Chicago Press
© 1992 by the National Bureau of Economic Research
in NBER Book Series Studies in Business Cycles

NBER Program(s):EFG

More information on purchasing this book
610 pp. pages
ISBN: 0-226-97890-7

Table of Contents

Front matter. (p. -21 - 0) (bibliographic info) (download)
1. Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview. (p. 1 - 19) (bibliographic info) (download)
2. Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective. (p. 20 - 76) (bibliographic info) (download)
3. Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U. S. Economic Fluctuations. (p. 77 - 124) (bibliographic info) (download)
4. Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements. (p. 125 - 163) (bibliographic info) (download)
5. Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau. (p. 164 - 180) (bibliographic info) (download)
6. How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction. (p. 181 - 202) (bibliographic info) (download)
7. Business Cycles and Growth. (p. 203 - 231) (bibliographic info) (download)
8. The Regularity of Business Cycles. (p. 232 - 264) (bibliographic info) (download) (Working Paper version)
9. Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy . (p. 265 - 280) (bibliographic info) (download)
10. Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses. (p. 281 - 315) (bibliographic info) (download)
11. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators. (p. 316 - 356) (bibliographic info) (download)
12. Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes. (p. 357 - 382) (bibliographic info) (download)
13. On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions. (p. 383 - 413) (bibliographic info) (download)
14. An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts. (p. 414 - 443) (bibliographic info) (download)
15. The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts. (p. 444 - 461) (bibliographic info) (download)
16. Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts. (p. 462 - 491) (bibliographic info) (download) (Working Paper version)
17. Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction. (p. 492 - 518) (bibliographic info) (download) (Working Paper version)
18. The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting. (p. 519 - 534) (bibliographic info) (download) (Working Paper version)
References. (p. 535 - 576) (bibliographic info) (download)
Author Index. (p. 577 - 584) (bibliographic info) (download)
Subject Index. (p. 585 - 593) (bibliographic info) (download)
 
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