The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?

Richard Meese and Kenneth Rogoff, Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics (University of Chicago Press, 1983), chap. 3, https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/exchange-rates-and-international-macroeconomics/out-sample-failure-empirical-exchange-rate-models-sampling-error-or-misspecification.